Irish population to hit 6.5m by 2060

Ireland’s population is set to reach 6.5 million in the next 50 years, according to projections from the European Union.

The 46 per cent growth projected by EU statistics agency Eurostat places Ireland at the top of the list of countries expected to grow by 2060, closely followed by Luxembourg and Cyprus at 45 per cent and 41 per cent respectively.

The Eurostat figures are based on current population numbers and the assumption that birth rates, death rates and migration will become standardised across the EU in the long-term.

The UK, Belgium and Sweden are all expected to grow by between 23 and 27 per cent. Other countries, including Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Germany, are expected to see falling population numbers, with Bulgaria seeing the largest drop of 27 per cent.

Ireland’s population explosion will make it the 16th most populous nation in Europe, up from its current 20th place.

The UK’s growth will likely see it overtake Germany as the most populous nation in Europe, reaching almost 79 million people in the next 50 years.

The EU as a whole will see a large increase in population across all 27 member states, peaking at 526 million people in 2040, before falling back to 517 million.

Ireland will also see its proportion of elderly citizens increase. By 2060 it is expected that people aged over 65 will account for 22 per cent of the population, with those over 80 representing 12 per cent of the total. This is double the current figure of about 11 per cent of the population over 65.

A Department of Finance report published in April identified the expected explosion of older citizens as a significant problem for long-term financial stability, saying that it would result in increases in public expenditure. An ageing population can cause problems for a country if the working population is not large enough to support the welfare needs of the elderly.

“Projections indicate that public spending on pensions, health and long-term care will increase from 12 per cent of GDP in 2007 to 15 per cent by 2030 and to 21 per cent by 2060. Potential savings from education expenditure will contribute only a small offsetting amount,” the report said.

The same report said that as a result, steps taken could include “increasing the population at work, cutting age-related spending and improving the country’s productive capacity”.

Other EU countries will be dealing with even older populations, with Latvia, Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, Germany and Slovakia all expected to have more than 30 per cent of their populations over 65.